Microsimulation explorer

A microsimulation is an argument you can push back on. It states its assumptions as numbers you can change, and it shows you what changing them does. That is a different kind of claim from a chart, which shows you one scenario and asks you to trust that it was the right one to show.

Why frame it rather than screenshot it

A screenshot of a model is a claim about the model. Framing the real thing lets a reader disagree with an assumption and immediately see whether the disagreement matters, which is most of what a policy audience actually wants to do.

The trade-off is honest: this page now depends on something it does not control. So the frame is treated as an enhancement rather than the content. The description above states what the model does and what it shows, the link opens it directly, and if the origin disappears this page still says something true.

Open Policy microsimulation explorer in a new tab

What it does not settle

A microsimulation projects the consequences of assumptions. It does not tell you which assumptions are right, and its confidence intervals are usually narrower than the underlying uncertainty because the model does not know what it left out.

That limit is why the analysis and the interpretation are separate steps here. Policy research and analysis covers how the assumptions were chosen, and Turning policy research into a decision-ready brief covers turning a projection into something a committee can act on without overstating it.